Research Authors
Md. Afzal Hossain, Mohammad Abul Kalam Azad, Nahid Akter, Md Sharif Hassan, Mohammad Rezaul Karim, Nazneen Fatema, & Hafizah Abdul Rahim
Journal Information
Publisher: Springer Nature (Open Access)
Citation: Volume 7, Article No: 964 (2026)
Published Date: 06 May 2026
DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-03404-5
Abstract
Bangladesh faces a critical conflict between the desire to industrialize under Vision 2041 and its climate promises set out under the nationally determined contribution (NDC), which calls for an emission reduction of 21.85 travelling by 2030. Existing empirical investigations at the national level have worked on the energy-emissions nexus of Bangladesh; however, sectoral evidence regarding industrial decarbonization is scarce. This work is incremental in that it uses conventional ARDL cointegration methods to assess the relationship between industrial consumption of coal and industry induced CO₂ emissions during the period of 1990–2018. Methodological issues were carefully dealt with: serial correlation was accounted for through the application of Newey-West corrections, the issue of multicollinearity was reduced through the application of mean-centering, and the uncertainty in the estimation of emissions was investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.
Findings are as follows: (i) Positive elasticity (0.18; p = 0.032) between coal consumption and emissions, which opens up the possibility of simulating the NDC (ii) Rejection of the environmental Kuznets curve at the sector level, which implies that a growth-then-clean scenario is not likely to work; and (iii) Evidence of a unidirectional causality from GDP to coal consumption, which implies that industrial restructuring, rather than end-of-pipeline regulation, should be at the heart of decarbonization policy. Limitations caused by a small sample (T = 29) prevent accurate causal inferences. Accordingly, the results should not be taken as definitive policy prescriptions but serve as evidence-informed guidance. Although methodologically conventional, the sectoral granularity provided here provides useful insights for targeted interventions in the subsectors of brickfield, textile, and cement sectors.
Findings are as follows: (i) Positive elasticity (0.18; p = 0.032) between coal consumption and emissions, which opens up the possibility of simulating the NDC (ii) Rejection of the environmental Kuznets curve at the sector level, which implies that a growth-then-clean scenario is not likely to work; and (iii) Evidence of a unidirectional causality from GDP to coal consumption, which implies that industrial restructuring, rather than end-of-pipeline regulation, should be at the heart of decarbonization policy. Limitations caused by a small sample (T = 29) prevent accurate causal inferences. Accordingly, the results should not be taken as definitive policy prescriptions but serve as evidence-informed guidance. Although methodologically conventional, the sectoral granularity provided here provides useful insights for targeted interventions in the subsectors of brickfield, textile, and cement sectors.
SPRINGER NATURE | INDUSTRIAL DECARBONIZATION & CLIMATE POLICY | 2026